Furnishing Lead Times at the Beginning of 2022

We have some good news and some bad news about furnishing lead times at the beginning of 2022. Let's start with the good news, shall we? It’s not too surprising that it comes from the industry leader, Kravet:

“Say goodbye to long lead times. With our dedication to getting you what you need when you need it, Kravet is always offering innovative solutions to your time-sensitive needs.”

• An astounding 90% of Kravet fabrics are in stock and ready to ship within 24 hours.

• Kravet Furniture is offering their QuickShip frames, paired with 150+ fabrics, produced in 10-12 weeks. This is less than half the current industry lead times.

• They offer same-day shipping for in-stock memos plus FREE FedEx 2nd day air shipping (which we can drop-ship directly to your clients).

Need something even quicker? Contact TD Fall & Co today and we will get you what you need!

Bad News About Furnishing Lead Times

According to an article at the global freight booking platform Freightos.com, the somewhat optimistic predictions for the new year have been slow to be realized.

“With ongoing pandemic-related delays and closures, non-stop demand for ocean freight from Asia to the US, and a lack of capacity, ocean rates are still very elevated and transit times volatile. Transpacific ocean rates have been more stable at the start of the year. Despite this stabilizing trend, rates remain 8-9 [times] higher than the pre-pandemic norm.

“Continued disrupted schedules and port congestion, combined with omicron slowdowns and Lunar New Year, mean that importers have yet to see any significant improvement in shipping conditions in 2022.”

Trucking Delays and Shipping Cost Increases

“With high demand from consumers, importers are rushing to replenish inventory, causing capacity in trucking to tighten and driving rates up. Now many observers warn that quarantine rules for returning truckers could cause significant delays even if goods manufactured over the holiday are ready to ship.

“Overwhelmed trucking, warehouse, and rail logistics are also contributing to the port delays, and to the overall slog in end-to-end logistics.

“Freightos.com marketplace data shows that in September, China-US ocean shipments took an average of 80 days to arrive at their final destination, 85% longer than in September 2019.” (emphasis added)

What You Can Do

Despite potential delays and high freight shipping costs, there are a few steps importers can take right now. Here are a few ideas to help you navigate the current freight market:

• Compare at least a few quotes and modes to make sure you are getting the best cost and most efficient service possible.

• Buffer your freight budget and transit time for changes. Costs due to unforeseen delays or limited capacity can arise, so be prepared.

• Explore warehousing options to mitigate the effects of lowered demand and business restrictions in the US.

• Pay attention to the profitability of your goods and consider if a pivot could be worthwhile. Additionally, remember to factor in freight costs when assessing profitability.

Here at TD Fall, we’re doing all we can to keep our ear to the ground (or ocean, as the case may be) where furnishing lead times and shipping delays are concerned.

And, as always, Ted is available with more than 25 years of experience and industry contacts he can put at your disposal with his business consulting services. Get in touch with TD Fall today.

The Supply Chain – Make that the Supply Ball and Chain

It’s all well and good for a blog like this one to share hot home design trends and uber-cool new home furnishing lines from various manufacturers like Kravet but – there just hadda’ be a “but”, right – but, we still have serious supply chain issues. And, according to some, the problems won’t be ending any time soon.

We don’t want to beat a dead horse on this subject but, while this particular horse is very ill, it’s still far from meeting its maker.

In a recent article at BusinessOfHome.com, author/editor Ray Allegrezza began a multi-part series that purports to analyze the problems with the supply chain and predict some sort of resolution. (Or, at least the potential for resolving these challenges!)

“Perfect storm isn't just a metaphor,” he declares. “In February, severe ice storms shut down the power grid in the Gulf of Mexico, shuttering four major chemical plants in Texas and another in Louisiana, which drastically reduced the availability of chemicals needed to produce foam used for furniture.

“Key upholstery sources began telling customers to expect a series of price hikes on goods, [along] with surcharges to help offset skyrocketing container and transportation costs. And since this was all part of the movie we are calling “The Perfect Storm”, this series of problems – raw material shortages; price hikes for fabric, foam, wood, metal, and more; and related disruptions in trucking, logistics, workforce, and beyond – hit precisely when demand was going through the roof.”

The “Perfect Storm”, indeed.

Doxing the West Coast Docks

Is it doxing if the info you share is true and already public? Who knows.

What we do know for certain is that the largest ports in the US; Los Angeles and Long Beach in the San Pedro harbor of Southern California, usually handle the great majority of imports from Asia. Currently, however, some 100-150 container ships are floating nearby and unable to dock and unload.

Further, once a ship does unload its cargo, there is a backlog of containers waiting for trucks – and drivers – to haul them across the country. Ports up the coast in San Francisco and Seattle simply do not have the capacity to handle the overload.

As a result, other ports in Texas, Georgia, and even Florida have begun to see a substantial increase in shipping. This, despite the added time and expense of traversing the Panama Canal (if it’s not backed up, as well).  These ports are also nowhere near as large as those in Southern California, meaning they do not have the capacity needed to relieve the backlog anytime soon.

If patience truly is a virtue, those of us in the furnishings and design industries must learn to possess ourselves with it.

“Another indicator that industry challenges will persist is a just-tabulated survey taken among 1,500 independent sales reps who are members of the International Home Furnishings Representatives Association. When the survey asked them to share how the pandemic has impacted their businesses and when they foresee these issues improving, 33 percent said mid-2022. Another 29 percent said late next year – and, tellingly, 30 percent said things would not improve until the very end of next year.”

So, according to the sales reps, those who should know since they exist between the manufacturers, dealers, and designers, we’re in for another six to twelve months of this craziness!

What Can You Do?

Besides being patient and hoping things get better for no discernable reason other than faith, the best path for dealers and designers to cope with the supply chain mess is to keep working with suppliers you know and trust. Keep these relationships open at all costs, and keep the lines of communication as wide open as possible between you, your suppliers, and your clients.

Further, it’s our fervent hope that you think of TD Fall as one of those reliable suppliers. We also hope that our relationship with you has made you confident in our ability to not only meet your product needs, but that we also keep you informed of anything that may impact them. If you have questions or need more product information, feel free to… Get in touch with TD Fall today.

Furniture Delivery Delays – Why Are They Getting Longer Instead of Improving?

OK, before we get into the subject of furniture delivery delays, there is something that simply MUST be said. Covid-19 did not cause shipping delays – in ours or any industry. No virus in the history of the world can cause that. However, the reaction to it can, including lock-downs, stay-at-home orders, mask mandates, factory shutdowns, and the myriad of other restrictions that were placed on individuals and businesses.

Having said that, the question must be asked, where does that leave us?

Well, it too often leaves us with delays in delivering the furnishings we’ve been accustomed to getting much more quickly for our clients, and you for yours. Sometimes ridiculous delays, perhaps up to nine months! (Yes, we’re aware that is a sentence fragment but it was the best way to clarify and emphasize the point. Sorry, not sorry!)

So, where does that leave us? Looking for answers from some slightly unusual sources. Now, news sites may not be considered unusual sources for any number of subjects but, in this case, we’re thinking industry sources could be a bit too optimistic. Because of this, we trolled a few sites that would give us the skinny without self-interest as their motivation (hopefully).

Why Is This Happening?

Be advised that some of the reports we chose were published in late spring and early to mid-summer when all of the craziness began – or became recognized. And, some product categories have either not been heavily impacted or are beginning to recover nicely. Still, it cannot be denied or avoided when dealing with homeowners, there are still some serious problems leading to unprecedented lead times for fine furnishings.

As one of the stories from a local ABC affiliate in the Cleveland area explained, “Increased demand, plus truck driver shortages, shipping docks and ports being packed, supply chain logistics issues, and storms in Texas and the southeast impacting factories that make a chemical needed in sofas and mattresses – well, it’s all caused longer than ever lead times.”

Earlier this year, furnishing lead times began to grow from a few weeks to a couple of months. Soon though, four to six months became the norm for many furniture suppliers. Now, thanks to those shortages and the lack of skilled labor, combined with the trucking problems and backlogs at some of the largest harbors and piers, nine to ten-month lead times are not out of the question.

An interesting development we found at CNN was the impact on a source many have no idea is critical to the furnishings supply chain: the country of Vietnam. That’s right, our former enemy has become a major competitor to China as a supplier of clothing and shoes (Nike), as well as upholstered furniture.

According to the article, this summer was a tough time in the Southeast Asian country as they suffered from a dramatic rise in Covid cases. “With factories in Vietnam shutting down due to the outbreak, the front-end of the United States furniture supply chain is badly affected, said Mark Schumacher, CEO of Home Furnishings Association, an industry group representing more than 1,500 retailers.”

Unfortunately, the industry has not fully recovered from these delays, especially in areas that were already struggling thanks to the winter freeze and storms that affected foam deliveries so dramatically.

A Perfect Storm – When Demand is Greater Than Supply

As many have said, the situation has become a perfect storm of homebound people deciding to upgrade their furnishings while the suppliers are struggling to supply even the most basic items: upholstered chairs and sofas, mattresses, and dining room sets. Much like a traffic accident during rush hour, once the flow is halted, the backup (or, in this case, backlog) grows beyond the ability of those in the rear to make progress – or even to know why they’re stuck!

And so it was and, to a significant extent remains, in the furnishings industry.

It’s not ALL bad news though. For example, here at TD Fall, we’ve begun to see a nice uptick in availability from more than a few manufacturers. Fine rugs and wall coverings were only marginally affected, most commonly due to shipping issues rather than a lack of components or labor.

Also, most of our suppliers have had little to no problems shipping accessory items and complementary pieces. Because of this, and as we suggested in a previous post on strategies for coping with delivery delays, many interior designers and furnishing retailers are delivering orders piecemeal where possible. That is, for many clients, something is better than nothing and this can make handling extended lead times easier for all involved.

As we shared then, and continue to believe, “You must… Be open with clients. Never hide extended lead times or other availability issues. Always communicate in both directions: with clients and suppliers. Always share the results of your communication as needed – not just when it might benefit you in some way. (Getting the bad news out of the way upfront will nearly always benefit you in the long run.)” (Is it OK to quote ourselves? Oh well, we did so… )

What’s Next?

Normally, a significant spike in demand like the one we’ve seen in our industry would have all of us drooling at the potential for a big jump in sales or design projects. Instead, 2021 has caused more tears of frustration than feelings of joy at such possibilities.

There is, however, a light at the end of the tunnel. In fact, if our experience at the recent High Point Fall Market is any indication of where we’re headed, optimism should be your next choice. Frankly, we had one helluva showing and, based on what we heard from our clients, fully expect the increased interest to continue.

We’re also seeing lead times gradually shrinking and are delighted that we can deliver more quickly than many expected.

Of course, part of that is thanks to the long relationship we’ve built with the industry leader, Kravet. With so many brands in so many categories, and because they ARE the industry leader with the power to demand exceptional service from their suppliers, product has begun to flow again. Granted, there can be hitches in the giddy-up even for a powerhouse like them but, overall, their century of experience and business relationships has helped us help our clients take care of business where others may struggle.

That said, most of our other lines are improving as well.

So, if you're frustrated, take a bit of comfort in knowing you're not alone. Then, if you're ready to find ways to move past some of those frustrating furniture delivery delays and make your design clients happy… Get in touch with TD Fall today.

When Instant Gratification Isn’t Possible - Who Pays for Design Project Delays?

Instant gratification can be a good thing – as long as you're the one being satisfied. For an interior designer though, trying to ensure your client’s remodeling project is completed quickly and smoothly has likely become far more challenging recently. With upholstery foam shortages and shipping problems worldwide, design project deadlines that seemed reasonable in the past may no longer be possible.

But who bears the brunt of these design project delays, you or your clients? Beyond simple scheduling problems to iron out, who absorbs increases in costs that extended lead times can cause? Finally, how do you even explain these problems to your clients in ways they can accept?

First, you can take some comfort in the fact that you are not alone – absolutely not alone. And, as explained in an article at BusinessOfHome.com that answers some of these questions, there are more than enough reasons that were out of your control to allow you to remain guilt-free.

“You [never] could have predicted that a cargo ship would get stuck in the Suez Canal for more than a week and hugely interrupt international shipping, nor could you have known that a deep freeze in Texas would virtually destroy foam production for months. And the once-in-a-hundred-year pandemic? Guessing you could not have foreseen that one either.”

Always, Always Be Professional

Next, it’s your responsibility to be the adult in the room. As Sean Low writes, “While these are extraordinary times, they are not without precedent. Price shocks and delays happen all the time, just not as suddenly and pervasively as now … do the hard work of having frank conversations. The fair solution is the right solution, even if some feathers are ruffled along the way.”

Neither you nor your client will benefit from temper tantrums and name-calling. A professional consultation that follows an open and honest initial interview and project contract will go a very long way toward smoothing the waters – for both of you.

Further, you have no ethical or professional justification for taking advantage of the situation. That is, when the costs of materials and labor increase, your client should bear the brunt. However, you are not entitled to make more money because of it. You and your work have value, of course, but that value does not change simply because the cost of kitchen cabinets has risen.

“If you have synced the cost of production with your percentage on purchases, you will now have to do the work to explain that the percentage was always a shorthand to get to what it takes to have the design come to life in their house once it is out of your head. If that work has not changed, then neither should your price, even if the cost of materials and labor have risen considerably.”

In other words, you have no right to charge your client more for the same amount and type of work. (Beyond being unprofessional, doing that would be unethical in the extreme!)

Don’t Eat Project Cost Increases

Time delays cost everyone and the cost must be borne equally. If your cash flow is tied to the timing of certain project goals, or “you earn a percentage on items purchased or charge a flat fee, there is very little you can do to increase revenue in the event of a delay. And do not kid yourself if you charge hourly, the delays will likely not result in enough work to compensate you for the loss of other work. (While you might get more money relative to those charging flat fees or percentages, you will definitely not get enough money.)”

All of this is to say that, while price increases for furnishings can be explained and justified (if not necessarily accepted painlessly), you cannot afford to bear the increased costs from time delays on your own. Fair is fair, after all. And, when the fault lies elsewhere, say with Mother Nature, they do not become your responsibility by default.

As Mr. Low explains, “My position is that time delays ought to be borne by both you and your client almost equally, perhaps through an additional monthly fee to recognize that the project is extending and you need to have the resources necessary to finish the job to the level you both agreed upon when you first started.”

While there is no way for us, or him, to suggest solutions that fit every situation, he does offer some nice insight and advice in the article. Again, you can read it at the BofH Business Advice column.

If you're looking for a more hands-on approach to coping with design project delays and keeping your clients satisfied (if not exactly instantly gratified), Ted is available for business consulting to the industry. Get in touch with TD Fall today.

Still No Cushion from the Foam Shortage Or Shipping Problems

See what we did there? Not to put too fine a point on it, and jokes aside, the combined impacts of the foam shortage and worldwide shipping problems have put a bit of a damper on the recent surge in the home design industry. Worse yet, the experts are not exactly optimistic about when (or if) things will return to normal.

So, what the heck is going on right now? We will try to explain.

Where Did the Foam Supply Go?

Beyond the problems created by the pandemic last year, severe weather early this year pretty much knocked out the foam chemical producers in the Gulf Coast region. And yet, while the weather has improved vastly since then, both chemical and foam production continues to lag. (HomeNewsNow.com)

“The answer, it appears, has less to do with what the industry might call “normal” supply of foam and chemicals for foam than with the relentless surge in demand for product that has yet to abate. Think of it this way, says Steve Rusing, executive vice president and president of U.S. sales for Tempur Sealy International: If the chemical suppliers are running at 100% capacity … industry demand continues to run at 120% or 130% of that capacity. The chemical suppliers simply have not been able to catch up.”

In an industry that rarely maintains a cushion of inventory in case of emergencies, this very well might have been expected. The good news is – you’ll have to wait for better news to be optimistic about the immediate future:

“Industry analyst Jerry Epperson said he doesn’t know of anybody who was expecting industry foam shortages to be over any earlier than June. And from what he’s read and from the executives he’s talked to in the bedding and upholstery manufacturing segment, all are saying it will be September at the earliest and probably year-end ‘Before we get back to the levels they were (supplying) before those storms hit in February’.”

Worldwide Shipping Crisis Update

Yeah, the experts are calling it a worldwide crisis, not just a “situation” or lead time “problem”. And, the most cringe-worthy part of this is – they don’t expect relief until next year (at best!).

According to a recent article at BusinessOfHome.com, “The flip side of the boom in the home and design industry over the past year and a half is the global shipping crisis. Demand has never been higher, and wait times never longer … Experts are now saying that it will be at least the first quarter of 2022 before shipping lead times will stabilize.”

Beyond the supply problems shared above, there appear to be three major reasons for the ongoing problems: increased demand, congestion at ports, and a serious shortage of shipping containers.

“Says journalist Rachel Premack, who has reported extensively on the crisis for Business Insider, ‘We’re continuing to see a remarkable increase in demand, coupled with a shortage of shipping containers and massive congestion at ports,’ she explains. ‘The reason we’re seeing 2022 as the point when this calms down a bit is that people are expecting that demand will continually decrease as society goes back to normal. Once that happens, ports can work through the existing backlog of containers’.”

At the moment, patience truly is a virtue, for suppliers, manufacturers, retailers, and designers around the globe. Oh, and yes, for your clients, too. So, be as upfront and honest as possible and share more information rather than less. Despite the ongoing foam shortage and delays in shipping, your bottom line will thank you for it.

We Can Deliver

At the moment, Kravet is only running a few weeks behind its normal production. In fact, their QuickShip frames, which normally would ship in two weeks, are shipping in 15 working days. All other frames, which normally ship in eight weeks, are currently shipping in 10-12. There are some caveats and disruptions but the customer is always kept informed!

Of course, the fact that all Kravet SMART frames and fabrics, which are the foundation of the QuickShip program, are guaranteed produced right here, in the USA, is sheer genius when it comes to lead times that are quicker than the competition.

Also, Ted remains available to work with you on an individual basis, consulting on how your business can best respond to the shifting demands of the marketplace, and the needs of your design and furnishings clients. Get in touch with TD Fall today.

Luxury Furnishing Lead Times (Can we say current lead times suck?!?)

What’s the number one factor you consider when choosing a luxury furnishing supplier right now? While it used to unquestionably be quality, feel, and/or looks, the emphasis has shifted to availability for many, if not most, designers and retailers. In other words, luxury furnishing lead times have become a singular priority for a majority today.

As explained in a January article at BusinessOfHome.com: “It’s no secret that lead times are stretching ever longer as COVID drags on – and that many clients are getting impatient. The delays have cut across categories, from bespoke upholstery to tile and kitchen appliances; even many of the quick-ship retailers [and wholesalers] can no longer deliver on tight timelines.

“Shutdowns of the manufacturing floor with the onset of COVID instigated an initial round of delays, which were compounded by a slow return to production as companies navigated new safety protocols. More than one year later, many major manufacturers still aren’t staffed at full pre-pandemic capacity, which makes it much harder to catch up on the backlog.

“And every time an employee tests positive for COVID, many more workers with whom they came into contact are sent home to quarantine, which only exacerbates the delays. Add soaring freight costs and a scarcity of raw materials (plus a shortage of containers to ship them in) and it quickly becomes clear that this is a mess with no easy answers or antidotes.”

It goes without saying that lead times have always been an issue in the luxury furnishings industry. Whether products were produced on the other side of the globe or were made by hand in an artisanal house locally, delays of weeks became the norm. Today though, lead times for all types of furniture, not just for the category of luxury furnishings, have exploded into months.

Where to Go for Reasonable Delivery Lead Times

What does all of this mean for you and your interior design or furnishings business?

While it may be “Kewl!” to work with the newest or trendiest line, a small house that creates unique designs, there are times when you are far better off working with the Big Boys (or Girls) instead. Stated simply, the larger brands and manufacturers have the infrastructure to cope more effectively with world-changing events.

For example, Kravet is known as the industry leader for a variety of reasons, most of which have little to do with them being more than a century old and being the Biggest of the Big Boys.

Beyond those, they truly have their house in order and possess the logistical know-how and experience to provide you with outstanding service while others struggle (and frequently fail) to deliver products in a timely fashion.

Right now, Kravet is only running a few weeks behind their normal production. In fact, their QuickShip frames, which normally would ship in two weeks, are shipping in 15 working days. All other frames, which normally ship in eight weeks, are currently shipping in 10-12. There are some caveats and disruptions but the customer is always kept informed!

Of course, the fact that all Kravet SMART frames and fabrics, which are the foundation of the QuickShip program, are guaranteed produced right here, in the USA, is a sheer genius when it comes to quicker than average lead times.

Get in Touch with TD Fall Today

In short, if you're searching for reasonable luxury furnishing lead times, TD Fall and the Kravet family of brands we represent just may be the answer you’ve been looking for.

Ted remains available to work with you on an individual basis, consulting on how your business can best respond to the shifting demands of the marketplace, and the needs of your design and furnishings clients. Get in touch with TD Fall today.