Furnishing Lead Times at the Beginning of 2022

We have some good news and some bad news about furnishing lead times at the beginning of 2022. Let's start with the good news, shall we? It’s not too surprising that it comes from the industry leader, Kravet:

“Say goodbye to long lead times. With our dedication to getting you what you need when you need it, Kravet is always offering innovative solutions to your time-sensitive needs.”

• An astounding 90% of Kravet fabrics are in stock and ready to ship within 24 hours.

• Kravet Furniture is offering their QuickShip frames, paired with 150+ fabrics, produced in 10-12 weeks. This is less than half the current industry lead times.

• They offer same-day shipping for in-stock memos plus FREE FedEx 2nd day air shipping (which we can drop-ship directly to your clients).

Need something even quicker? Contact TD Fall & Co today and we will get you what you need!

Bad News About Furnishing Lead Times

According to an article at the global freight booking platform Freightos.com, the somewhat optimistic predictions for the new year have been slow to be realized.

“With ongoing pandemic-related delays and closures, non-stop demand for ocean freight from Asia to the US, and a lack of capacity, ocean rates are still very elevated and transit times volatile. Transpacific ocean rates have been more stable at the start of the year. Despite this stabilizing trend, rates remain 8-9 [times] higher than the pre-pandemic norm.

“Continued disrupted schedules and port congestion, combined with omicron slowdowns and Lunar New Year, mean that importers have yet to see any significant improvement in shipping conditions in 2022.”

Trucking Delays and Shipping Cost Increases

“With high demand from consumers, importers are rushing to replenish inventory, causing capacity in trucking to tighten and driving rates up. Now many observers warn that quarantine rules for returning truckers could cause significant delays even if goods manufactured over the holiday are ready to ship.

“Overwhelmed trucking, warehouse, and rail logistics are also contributing to the port delays, and to the overall slog in end-to-end logistics.

“Freightos.com marketplace data shows that in September, China-US ocean shipments took an average of 80 days to arrive at their final destination, 85% longer than in September 2019.” (emphasis added)

What You Can Do

Despite potential delays and high freight shipping costs, there are a few steps importers can take right now. Here are a few ideas to help you navigate the current freight market:

• Compare at least a few quotes and modes to make sure you are getting the best cost and most efficient service possible.

• Buffer your freight budget and transit time for changes. Costs due to unforeseen delays or limited capacity can arise, so be prepared.

• Explore warehousing options to mitigate the effects of lowered demand and business restrictions in the US.

• Pay attention to the profitability of your goods and consider if a pivot could be worthwhile. Additionally, remember to factor in freight costs when assessing profitability.

Here at TD Fall, we’re doing all we can to keep our ear to the ground (or ocean, as the case may be) where furnishing lead times and shipping delays are concerned.

And, as always, Ted is available with more than 25 years of experience and industry contacts he can put at your disposal with his business consulting services. Get in touch with TD Fall today.

Furnishings Labor Shortage – What’s Going On?

It seems everywhere you go online or on TV, the news about the supply chain is grim and getting grimmer. (Is “grimmer” a word? Autocorrect seems to think so!) Yet, all of the stories seem the same – shipping has slowed, there’s a container shortage, and the ports of entry on the West Coast are overloaded. Then too, we hear, it’s difficult if not impossible to find workers and the shortage of skilled workers has led to a furnishings labor shortage that may last indefinitely.

Oy, what’s going on?

According to many experts, and despite news sources, the real issue is not so much a transportation bottleneck as it is a labor shortage in virtually every industry. Yes, shipping containers are in short supply and leasing them is more expensive than ever. Cargos ships from the Far East are filled to bursting and must wait to offload outside their usual ports before docking. Then, offloading them is taking days or weeks rather than hours because stevedores are also in short supply.

According to an opinion piece from Jerry Epperson, Founder/Managing Director of Mann, Armistead & Epperson, Ltd. at FurnitureToday.com, the ongoing labor shortage in the US is not limited to the furnishings industry but has become a universal problem. (This is true for not only skilled but unskilled factory workers.)

He wrote, “In September the consumer media seemed uninterested, while in October, they woke to the severity of the problems and offered daily coverage. A few recent articles were encouraging with container shipping costs trending down slowly, fewer Asian factory closings dictated by the COVID-19, and major efforts at the larger ports to improve congestion and get things moving.

“The problem everyone faces is labor. I just read a long thesis about the labor issue by the New York Times that found that American families are so well off financially that fewer need to work. Yes, the stock market and home prices are up handsomely, and Uncle Sam has been generous recently with pandemic-related giveaways, but it still doesn’t feel right for 4.3 million [workers] to walk off their jobs in August.”

The Skilled Labor Shortage is Very Real

In a piece from March at BusinessWire.com, we learn that “While millions of Americans affected by pandemic job loss are still looking for work, the number of skilled trade jobs in the U.S. is far outpacing the supply of qualified workers to fill them. A new analysis by the skilled trades division of staffing leader PeopleReady finds that the most in-demand skilled trade jobs are remaining unfilled the longest, roughly a month on average, due to the shortage of qualified workers.” (emphasis added)

Further, “The skilled trades are in dire need of workers right now, with a particularly high demand for apprentice-level and skilled labor positions. These are steady, well-paying jobs that hold a bright future, even in an unpredictable economic climate,” said Jill Quinn, executive leader of PeopleReady Skilled Trades. “For the millions of Americans who are struggling in their job hunt right now, our message is simple: Consider a career in the skilled trades.”

The reason(s) for the scarcity of high-quality and artisanal workers are two-fold (at least). While it is true that “The skilled trades labor shortage, predominantly driven by a mass exit of baby boomers retiring from the sector, can be an opportunity for people looking for work, especially those who have little to no experience in the skilled trades and need job training.” (emphasis added)

It also appears to be true that “Although the skills shortage in manufacturing has been a pervasive issue for the past several years, our research shows us that far more manufacturers today (54%) than a year ago (38%) are having a particularly hard timing finding candidates with the right skills to fill critical job openings. At the same time, 54% of manufacturers say that negative industry perceptions are impacting their ability to recruit Millennial and Gen Z talent, which is equally challenging.” (emphasis added)

It’s a Nuts and Bolts Issue (Literally)

As an interesting side note, the supply chain problems for luxury furnishings extends beyond the foam shortage and shipping issues we’ve mentioned before.

In an unusual source for industry-related news, Slate.com, we’re told, “Additional fallout from the February storms [which is the original cause of the ongoing foam shortage] has left other factories playing catch-up in churning out domestic supplies of nuts, bolts, fabrics, drawer rails, and brackets for holding together chairs and shelves. This tends to affect more expensive products.” (emphasis added)

And, “Lumber is the other crucial raw material for furniture that’s become much pricier and more difficult to come by … [and] a lopsided supply-and-demand dynamic has been playing out in the sector. There’s been a run on wood not only due to the demand for furniture, but also because of a boom in home building and renovations. At the same time, sawmills pared back operations after the Great Recession and now don’t have the capacity to ramp up production, even if the timber they want to cut is in plentiful supply.” (emphasis added)

Unfortunately, it seems few solutions for any of these problems are being offered by “experts” in the media. However, despite that lack of advice on how to fix things, good news can be found, as evidenced by an article at WoodWorkingNetwork.com:

This included increases in orders as well as decreases in order backlogs. We also saw increases in furniture production and, despite the soft labor market nationwide, employment numbers in October were also on the rise.

“The furniture manufacturing industry experienced strong sales and orders in October and was ranked as the third-highest growth sector in the rankings compiled by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in its latest report on manufacturing activity.”

Patience and Optimism are Needed

Based on what we’re seeing currently, not everything is negative so patient optimism seems to be the order of the day. And, though the furnishings labor shortage remains a moderately short and serious long-term problem, we may be seeing light at the end of the tunnel.

Ted remains available for business consulting to the trade and may have the answers you need to cope with our current market. Call us today for the latest on lead times from the Kravet Family of Brands

Still No Cushion from the Foam Shortage Or Shipping Problems

See what we did there? Not to put too fine a point on it, and jokes aside, the combined impacts of the foam shortage and worldwide shipping problems have put a bit of a damper on the recent surge in the home design industry. Worse yet, the experts are not exactly optimistic about when (or if) things will return to normal.

So, what the heck is going on right now? We will try to explain.

Where Did the Foam Supply Go?

Beyond the problems created by the pandemic last year, severe weather early this year pretty much knocked out the foam chemical producers in the Gulf Coast region. And yet, while the weather has improved vastly since then, both chemical and foam production continues to lag. (HomeNewsNow.com)

“The answer, it appears, has less to do with what the industry might call “normal” supply of foam and chemicals for foam than with the relentless surge in demand for product that has yet to abate. Think of it this way, says Steve Rusing, executive vice president and president of U.S. sales for Tempur Sealy International: If the chemical suppliers are running at 100% capacity … industry demand continues to run at 120% or 130% of that capacity. The chemical suppliers simply have not been able to catch up.”

In an industry that rarely maintains a cushion of inventory in case of emergencies, this very well might have been expected. The good news is – you’ll have to wait for better news to be optimistic about the immediate future:

“Industry analyst Jerry Epperson said he doesn’t know of anybody who was expecting industry foam shortages to be over any earlier than June. And from what he’s read and from the executives he’s talked to in the bedding and upholstery manufacturing segment, all are saying it will be September at the earliest and probably year-end ‘Before we get back to the levels they were (supplying) before those storms hit in February’.”

Worldwide Shipping Crisis Update

Yeah, the experts are calling it a worldwide crisis, not just a “situation” or lead time “problem”. And, the most cringe-worthy part of this is – they don’t expect relief until next year (at best!).

According to a recent article at BusinessOfHome.com, “The flip side of the boom in the home and design industry over the past year and a half is the global shipping crisis. Demand has never been higher, and wait times never longer … Experts are now saying that it will be at least the first quarter of 2022 before shipping lead times will stabilize.”

Beyond the supply problems shared above, there appear to be three major reasons for the ongoing problems: increased demand, congestion at ports, and a serious shortage of shipping containers.

“Says journalist Rachel Premack, who has reported extensively on the crisis for Business Insider, ‘We’re continuing to see a remarkable increase in demand, coupled with a shortage of shipping containers and massive congestion at ports,’ she explains. ‘The reason we’re seeing 2022 as the point when this calms down a bit is that people are expecting that demand will continually decrease as society goes back to normal. Once that happens, ports can work through the existing backlog of containers’.”

At the moment, patience truly is a virtue, for suppliers, manufacturers, retailers, and designers around the globe. Oh, and yes, for your clients, too. So, be as upfront and honest as possible and share more information rather than less. Despite the ongoing foam shortage and delays in shipping, your bottom line will thank you for it.

We Can Deliver

At the moment, Kravet is only running a few weeks behind its normal production. In fact, their QuickShip frames, which normally would ship in two weeks, are shipping in 15 working days. All other frames, which normally ship in eight weeks, are currently shipping in 10-12. There are some caveats and disruptions but the customer is always kept informed!

Of course, the fact that all Kravet SMART frames and fabrics, which are the foundation of the QuickShip program, are guaranteed produced right here, in the USA, is sheer genius when it comes to lead times that are quicker than the competition.

Also, Ted remains available to work with you on an individual basis, consulting on how your business can best respond to the shifting demands of the marketplace, and the needs of your design and furnishings clients. Get in touch with TD Fall today.

Luxury Furnishing Lead Times (Can we say current lead times suck?!?)

What’s the number one factor you consider when choosing a luxury furnishing supplier right now? While it used to unquestionably be quality, feel, and/or looks, the emphasis has shifted to availability for many, if not most, designers and retailers. In other words, luxury furnishing lead times have become a singular priority for a majority today.

As explained in a January article at BusinessOfHome.com: “It’s no secret that lead times are stretching ever longer as COVID drags on – and that many clients are getting impatient. The delays have cut across categories, from bespoke upholstery to tile and kitchen appliances; even many of the quick-ship retailers [and wholesalers] can no longer deliver on tight timelines.

“Shutdowns of the manufacturing floor with the onset of COVID instigated an initial round of delays, which were compounded by a slow return to production as companies navigated new safety protocols. More than one year later, many major manufacturers still aren’t staffed at full pre-pandemic capacity, which makes it much harder to catch up on the backlog.

“And every time an employee tests positive for COVID, many more workers with whom they came into contact are sent home to quarantine, which only exacerbates the delays. Add soaring freight costs and a scarcity of raw materials (plus a shortage of containers to ship them in) and it quickly becomes clear that this is a mess with no easy answers or antidotes.”

It goes without saying that lead times have always been an issue in the luxury furnishings industry. Whether products were produced on the other side of the globe or were made by hand in an artisanal house locally, delays of weeks became the norm. Today though, lead times for all types of furniture, not just for the category of luxury furnishings, have exploded into months.

Where to Go for Reasonable Delivery Lead Times

What does all of this mean for you and your interior design or furnishings business?

While it may be “Kewl!” to work with the newest or trendiest line, a small house that creates unique designs, there are times when you are far better off working with the Big Boys (or Girls) instead. Stated simply, the larger brands and manufacturers have the infrastructure to cope more effectively with world-changing events.

For example, Kravet is known as the industry leader for a variety of reasons, most of which have little to do with them being more than a century old and being the Biggest of the Big Boys.

Beyond those, they truly have their house in order and possess the logistical know-how and experience to provide you with outstanding service while others struggle (and frequently fail) to deliver products in a timely fashion.

Right now, Kravet is only running a few weeks behind their normal production. In fact, their QuickShip frames, which normally would ship in two weeks, are shipping in 15 working days. All other frames, which normally ship in eight weeks, are currently shipping in 10-12. There are some caveats and disruptions but the customer is always kept informed!

Of course, the fact that all Kravet SMART frames and fabrics, which are the foundation of the QuickShip program, are guaranteed produced right here, in the USA, is a sheer genius when it comes to quicker than average lead times.

Get in Touch with TD Fall Today

In short, if you're searching for reasonable luxury furnishing lead times, TD Fall and the Kravet family of brands we represent just may be the answer you’ve been looking for.

Ted remains available to work with you on an individual basis, consulting on how your business can best respond to the shifting demands of the marketplace, and the needs of your design and furnishings clients. Get in touch with TD Fall today.