Leathercraft Lead Times – NOW Program 30-Day Shipping

As we mentioned in a previous post, furniture shipping lead times are improving. As a result, Leathercraft lead times are also looking better. We are happy to announce that their NOW Program furniture is shipping in 30 days.

The NOW Program is offering 30-day turnaround times on select frames and leathers. (And, considering what we’ve had to deal with for the past couple of years, 30 days is about as close to “now” as some of us can hope for!)

Leathercraft NOW Program Sofas & Sectionals

Manhattan Sofa

Shelley Sofa

Sectional Styles Available in 30 Days

NOW Program Leathercraft Recliners

Three Styles of Recliners Shipping in 30 Days

NOW Program Chairs

Three Styles of Chairs Shipping in 30 Days

Leathercraft NOW Program Features and Options

Who is Leathercraft?

“For over 50 years, Leathercraft has manufactured the finest leather seating available. Located in the highlands of Western North Carolina, an area with the greatest concentration of skilled craftspeople in the country, these skilled people are the backbone of Leathercraft’s enduring quality.

Our goal is to produce upholstered furniture to the highest standards possible utilizing the best materials and employing true tested manufacturing techniques. In doing so, we want to simplify the ordering process while providing you the opportunity to specify the product that fulfills your requirements.”

For more on Leathercraft fine leather furnishings and their 30-day NOW Program… Contact TD Fall today.

Shipping Lead Times – The Light at the End of the Tunnel

With shipping lead times of eight to nine months as recently as this spring, supply chain issues put unprecedented pressure on manufacturers of luxury furnishings. And, since bad news rolls downhill, these delays placed even higher pressure on interior designers and higher-end furniture retailers.

“The delays have been so bad for so long,” as explained in an article at the Business of Home website, “that designers have gotten used to a new way of working: Order the big pieces first, assume a yearlong wait for [them] and fill in the rest as you go. Oh, and definitely double-check your shipping costs.”

Lead Times Trending Downward for Many

So, is there good news, you may ask. Based on an “informal survey” by BoH, manufacturers are beginning to catch up on their back orders while retailers are quoting shorter lead times to their customers. Rather than months, lead times are being quoted in weeks. In fact, some of these dealers and manufacturers are quoting as few as three to five weeks for delivery, though most are in the 10 to 12 week range.

While we may not have fully recovered quite yet (some plants in China have closed due to excessive heat), “at the very least, no one’s turnaround times are getting longer, suggesting that the worst is over and the crisis has bottomed out.”

Further, demand has moderated since early this year, relieving the pressure on foam manufacturers and those with labor shortages. Lower demand in some categories has allowed suppliers to catch up on orders and improve their production and distribution.

Ironic, much?

Psychology Matters

While it may seem counter intuitive, after a couple of years consumers seem to have adapted (and even accepted) extended delivery times. This change in mindset from instant gratification to lowered expectations means that “Long lead times are not a deal breaker anymore.”

In other words, the definition of “reasonable” has been altered by the unprecedented circumstance of the past few years. This enables dealers and designers to return relying on the adage, “Under promise and over deliver”.

Granted, we’re not quite out of the woods yet but, for the first time in a couple of years (at least), the trend in definitely positive.

We’re also happy to let you know that a number of our suppliers have been conforming to this trend with shipping lead times improving for them, as well. If you’d  like to know more, Contact TD Fall today.

Furnishing Lead Times at the Beginning of 2022

We have some good news and some bad news about furnishing lead times at the beginning of 2022. Let's start with the good news, shall we? It’s not too surprising that it comes from the industry leader, Kravet:

“Say goodbye to long lead times. With our dedication to getting you what you need when you need it, Kravet is always offering innovative solutions to your time-sensitive needs.”

• An astounding 90% of Kravet fabrics are in stock and ready to ship within 24 hours.

• Kravet Furniture is offering their QuickShip frames, paired with 150+ fabrics, produced in 10-12 weeks. This is less than half the current industry lead times.

• They offer same-day shipping for in-stock memos plus FREE FedEx 2nd day air shipping (which we can drop-ship directly to your clients).

Need something even quicker? Contact TD Fall & Co today and we will get you what you need!

Bad News About Furnishing Lead Times

According to an article at the global freight booking platform Freightos.com, the somewhat optimistic predictions for the new year have been slow to be realized.

“With ongoing pandemic-related delays and closures, non-stop demand for ocean freight from Asia to the US, and a lack of capacity, ocean rates are still very elevated and transit times volatile. Transpacific ocean rates have been more stable at the start of the year. Despite this stabilizing trend, rates remain 8-9 [times] higher than the pre-pandemic norm.

“Continued disrupted schedules and port congestion, combined with omicron slowdowns and Lunar New Year, mean that importers have yet to see any significant improvement in shipping conditions in 2022.”

Trucking Delays and Shipping Cost Increases

“With high demand from consumers, importers are rushing to replenish inventory, causing capacity in trucking to tighten and driving rates up. Now many observers warn that quarantine rules for returning truckers could cause significant delays even if goods manufactured over the holiday are ready to ship.

“Overwhelmed trucking, warehouse, and rail logistics are also contributing to the port delays, and to the overall slog in end-to-end logistics.

“Freightos.com marketplace data shows that in September, China-US ocean shipments took an average of 80 days to arrive at their final destination, 85% longer than in September 2019.” (emphasis added)

What You Can Do

Despite potential delays and high freight shipping costs, there are a few steps importers can take right now. Here are a few ideas to help you navigate the current freight market:

• Compare at least a few quotes and modes to make sure you are getting the best cost and most efficient service possible.

• Buffer your freight budget and transit time for changes. Costs due to unforeseen delays or limited capacity can arise, so be prepared.

• Explore warehousing options to mitigate the effects of lowered demand and business restrictions in the US.

• Pay attention to the profitability of your goods and consider if a pivot could be worthwhile. Additionally, remember to factor in freight costs when assessing profitability.

Here at TD Fall, we’re doing all we can to keep our ear to the ground (or ocean, as the case may be) where furnishing lead times and shipping delays are concerned.

And, as always, Ted is available with more than 25 years of experience and industry contacts he can put at your disposal with his business consulting services. Get in touch with TD Fall today.

Furnishings Labor Shortage – What’s Going On?

It seems everywhere you go online or on TV, the news about the supply chain is grim and getting grimmer. (Is “grimmer” a word? Autocorrect seems to think so!) Yet, all of the stories seem the same – shipping has slowed, there’s a container shortage, and the ports of entry on the West Coast are overloaded. Then too, we hear, it’s difficult if not impossible to find workers and the shortage of skilled workers has led to a furnishings labor shortage that may last indefinitely.

Oy, what’s going on?

According to many experts, and despite news sources, the real issue is not so much a transportation bottleneck as it is a labor shortage in virtually every industry. Yes, shipping containers are in short supply and leasing them is more expensive than ever. Cargos ships from the Far East are filled to bursting and must wait to offload outside their usual ports before docking. Then, offloading them is taking days or weeks rather than hours because stevedores are also in short supply.

According to an opinion piece from Jerry Epperson, Founder/Managing Director of Mann, Armistead & Epperson, Ltd. at FurnitureToday.com, the ongoing labor shortage in the US is not limited to the furnishings industry but has become a universal problem. (This is true for not only skilled but unskilled factory workers.)

He wrote, “In September the consumer media seemed uninterested, while in October, they woke to the severity of the problems and offered daily coverage. A few recent articles were encouraging with container shipping costs trending down slowly, fewer Asian factory closings dictated by the COVID-19, and major efforts at the larger ports to improve congestion and get things moving.

“The problem everyone faces is labor. I just read a long thesis about the labor issue by the New York Times that found that American families are so well off financially that fewer need to work. Yes, the stock market and home prices are up handsomely, and Uncle Sam has been generous recently with pandemic-related giveaways, but it still doesn’t feel right for 4.3 million [workers] to walk off their jobs in August.”

The Skilled Labor Shortage is Very Real

In a piece from March at BusinessWire.com, we learn that “While millions of Americans affected by pandemic job loss are still looking for work, the number of skilled trade jobs in the U.S. is far outpacing the supply of qualified workers to fill them. A new analysis by the skilled trades division of staffing leader PeopleReady finds that the most in-demand skilled trade jobs are remaining unfilled the longest, roughly a month on average, due to the shortage of qualified workers.” (emphasis added)

Further, “The skilled trades are in dire need of workers right now, with a particularly high demand for apprentice-level and skilled labor positions. These are steady, well-paying jobs that hold a bright future, even in an unpredictable economic climate,” said Jill Quinn, executive leader of PeopleReady Skilled Trades. “For the millions of Americans who are struggling in their job hunt right now, our message is simple: Consider a career in the skilled trades.”

The reason(s) for the scarcity of high-quality and artisanal workers are two-fold (at least). While it is true that “The skilled trades labor shortage, predominantly driven by a mass exit of baby boomers retiring from the sector, can be an opportunity for people looking for work, especially those who have little to no experience in the skilled trades and need job training.” (emphasis added)

It also appears to be true that “Although the skills shortage in manufacturing has been a pervasive issue for the past several years, our research shows us that far more manufacturers today (54%) than a year ago (38%) are having a particularly hard timing finding candidates with the right skills to fill critical job openings. At the same time, 54% of manufacturers say that negative industry perceptions are impacting their ability to recruit Millennial and Gen Z talent, which is equally challenging.” (emphasis added)

It’s a Nuts and Bolts Issue (Literally)

As an interesting side note, the supply chain problems for luxury furnishings extends beyond the foam shortage and shipping issues we’ve mentioned before.

In an unusual source for industry-related news, Slate.com, we’re told, “Additional fallout from the February storms [which is the original cause of the ongoing foam shortage] has left other factories playing catch-up in churning out domestic supplies of nuts, bolts, fabrics, drawer rails, and brackets for holding together chairs and shelves. This tends to affect more expensive products.” (emphasis added)

And, “Lumber is the other crucial raw material for furniture that’s become much pricier and more difficult to come by … [and] a lopsided supply-and-demand dynamic has been playing out in the sector. There’s been a run on wood not only due to the demand for furniture, but also because of a boom in home building and renovations. At the same time, sawmills pared back operations after the Great Recession and now don’t have the capacity to ramp up production, even if the timber they want to cut is in plentiful supply.” (emphasis added)

Unfortunately, it seems few solutions for any of these problems are being offered by “experts” in the media. However, despite that lack of advice on how to fix things, good news can be found, as evidenced by an article at WoodWorkingNetwork.com:

This included increases in orders as well as decreases in order backlogs. We also saw increases in furniture production and, despite the soft labor market nationwide, employment numbers in October were also on the rise.

“The furniture manufacturing industry experienced strong sales and orders in October and was ranked as the third-highest growth sector in the rankings compiled by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in its latest report on manufacturing activity.”

Patience and Optimism are Needed

Based on what we’re seeing currently, not everything is negative so patient optimism seems to be the order of the day. And, though the furnishings labor shortage remains a moderately short and serious long-term problem, we may be seeing light at the end of the tunnel.

Ted remains available for business consulting to the trade and may have the answers you need to cope with our current market. Call us today for the latest on lead times from the Kravet Family of Brands

The Supply Chain – Make that the Supply Ball and Chain

It’s all well and good for a blog like this one to share hot home design trends and uber-cool new home furnishing lines from various manufacturers like Kravet but – there just hadda’ be a “but”, right – but, we still have serious supply chain issues. And, according to some, the problems won’t be ending any time soon.

We don’t want to beat a dead horse on this subject but, while this particular horse is very ill, it’s still far from meeting its maker.

In a recent article at BusinessOfHome.com, author/editor Ray Allegrezza began a multi-part series that purports to analyze the problems with the supply chain and predict some sort of resolution. (Or, at least the potential for resolving these challenges!)

“Perfect storm isn't just a metaphor,” he declares. “In February, severe ice storms shut down the power grid in the Gulf of Mexico, shuttering four major chemical plants in Texas and another in Louisiana, which drastically reduced the availability of chemicals needed to produce foam used for furniture.

“Key upholstery sources began telling customers to expect a series of price hikes on goods, [along] with surcharges to help offset skyrocketing container and transportation costs. And since this was all part of the movie we are calling “The Perfect Storm”, this series of problems – raw material shortages; price hikes for fabric, foam, wood, metal, and more; and related disruptions in trucking, logistics, workforce, and beyond – hit precisely when demand was going through the roof.”

The “Perfect Storm”, indeed.

Doxing the West Coast Docks

Is it doxing if the info you share is true and already public? Who knows.

What we do know for certain is that the largest ports in the US; Los Angeles and Long Beach in the San Pedro harbor of Southern California, usually handle the great majority of imports from Asia. Currently, however, some 100-150 container ships are floating nearby and unable to dock and unload.

Further, once a ship does unload its cargo, there is a backlog of containers waiting for trucks – and drivers – to haul them across the country. Ports up the coast in San Francisco and Seattle simply do not have the capacity to handle the overload.

As a result, other ports in Texas, Georgia, and even Florida have begun to see a substantial increase in shipping. This, despite the added time and expense of traversing the Panama Canal (if it’s not backed up, as well).  These ports are also nowhere near as large as those in Southern California, meaning they do not have the capacity needed to relieve the backlog anytime soon.

If patience truly is a virtue, those of us in the furnishings and design industries must learn to possess ourselves with it.

“Another indicator that industry challenges will persist is a just-tabulated survey taken among 1,500 independent sales reps who are members of the International Home Furnishings Representatives Association. When the survey asked them to share how the pandemic has impacted their businesses and when they foresee these issues improving, 33 percent said mid-2022. Another 29 percent said late next year – and, tellingly, 30 percent said things would not improve until the very end of next year.”

So, according to the sales reps, those who should know since they exist between the manufacturers, dealers, and designers, we’re in for another six to twelve months of this craziness!

What Can You Do?

Besides being patient and hoping things get better for no discernable reason other than faith, the best path for dealers and designers to cope with the supply chain mess is to keep working with suppliers you know and trust. Keep these relationships open at all costs, and keep the lines of communication as wide open as possible between you, your suppliers, and your clients.

Further, it’s our fervent hope that you think of TD Fall as one of those reliable suppliers. We also hope that our relationship with you has made you confident in our ability to not only meet your product needs, but that we also keep you informed of anything that may impact them. If you have questions or need more product information, feel free to… Get in touch with TD Fall today.